the fat tail the power of political knowledge in an uncertain world with a new preface

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The Fat Tail

Author : Ian Bremmer
ISBN : 0199752885
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 22. 53 MB
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As Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat reveal in this innovative book, volatile political events such as the 2008 Georgia-Russia confrontation--and their catastrophic effects on business--happen much more frequently than investors imagine. On the curve that charts both the frequency of these events and the power of their impact, the "tail" of extreme political instability is not reassuringly thin but dangerously fat. Featuring a new Foreward that accounts for the cataclysmic effects of the 2008 financial crisis, The Fat Tail is the first book to both identify the wide range of political risks that global firms face and show investors how to effectively manage them. Written by two of the world's leading figures in political risk management, it reveals that while the world remains exceedingly risky for businesses, it is by no means incomprehensible. Political risk is unpredictable, but it is easier to analyze and manage than most people think. Applying the lessons of world history, Bremmer and Keat survey a vast range of contemporary risky situations, from stable markets like the United States or Japan, where politically driven regulation can still dramatically effect business, to more precarious places like Iran, China, Russia, Turkey, Mexico, and Nigeria, where private property is less secure and energy politics sparks constant volatility. The book sheds light on a wide array of political risks--risks that stem from great power rivalries, terrorist groups, government takeover of private property, weak leaders and internal strife, and even the "black swans" that defy prediction. But more importantly, the authors provide a wealth of unique methods, tools, and concepts to help corporations, money managers, and policy makers understand political risk, showing when and how political risk analysis works--and when it does not. "The Fat Tail delivers practical wisdom on the impact of political risk on firms of every description and valuable advice on how to use it. Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat offer innovative thinking and useful insight that will help business decision-makers find fresh answers to questions they may not yet know they have." --Fareed Zakaria, best-selling author of The Post-American World "Political risk has become increasingly complex, and The Fat Tail provides a truly new way to quantitatively assess it in established and emerging markets. It is essential reading for any CEO with multinational interests." --Randall Stephenson, Chairman, CEO and President, AT&T Inc. "Should be essential reading for anyone involved in international business even--perhaps especially--in places that seem politically stable." --Bill Emmott, former editor-in-chief of The Economist

A Short Guide To Political Risk

Author : Mr Robert McKellar
ISBN : 9781409458883
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 65. 92 MB
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What does political risk really mean to a company who relies on operations in unstable areas for competitiveness and growth? What does it mean for a specific operation of strategic significance, and how can managers at the strategic and operational levels effectively address this unique type of risk? This is an essential read for risk managers and for all senior managers concerned with their organization's global performance and reputation.

The End Of The Free Market

Author : Ian Bremmer
ISBN : 9781101429457
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 90. 60 MB
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Understanding the rise of state capitalism and its threat to global free markets The End of the Free Market details the growing phenomenon of state capitalism, a system in which governments drive local economies through ownership of market-dominant companies and large pools of excess capital, using them for political gain. This trend threatens America's competitive edge and the conduct of free markets everywhere. An expert on the intersection of economics and politics, Ian Bremmer has followed the rise of state-owned firms in China, Russia, the Arab states of the Persian Gulf, Iran, Venezuela, and elsewhere. He demonstrates the growing challenge that state capitalism will pose for the entire global economy. Among the questions addressed: Are we on the brink of a new kind of Cold War, one that pits competing economic systems in a battle for dominance? Can free market countries compete with state capitalist powerhouses over relations with countries that have elements of both systems-like India, Brazil, and Mexico? Does state capitalism have staying power? This guide to the next big global economic trend includes useful insights for investors, business leaders, policymakers, and anyone who wants to understand important emerging changes in international politics and the global economy.

Every Nation For Itself

Author : Ian Bremmer
ISBN : 9781591846208
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 87. 10 MB
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Posing arguments about growing G-20 restrictions and the inability and unwillingness of powerful governments to mediate global challenges, a portrait of an imminent "G-Zero" world without a single country driving international agendas predicts intensified conflicts that will benefit and victimize specific nations. Reprint.

The Constitution Of Risk

Author : Adrian Vermeule
ISBN : 9781107043725
Genre : Law
File Size : 40. 36 MB
Format : PDF
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The Constitution of Risk is the first book to combine constitutional theory with the theory of risk regulation. The book argues that constitutional rulemaking is best understood as a means of managing political risks. Constitutional law structures and regulates the risks that arise in and from political life, such as an executive coup or military putsch, political abuse of ideological or ethnic minorities, or corrupt self-dealing by officials. The book claims that the best way to manage political risks is an approach it calls "optimizing constitutionalism" - in contrast to the worst-case thinking that underpins "precautionary constitutionalism," a mainstay of liberal constitutional theory. Drawing on a broad range of disciplines such as decision theory, game theory, welfare economics, political science, and psychology, this book advocates constitutional rulemaking undertaken in a spirit of welfare maximization, and offers a corrective to the pervasive and frequently irrational attitude of distrust of official power that is so prominent in American constitutional history and discourse.

New States New Politics

Author : Ian Bremmer
ISBN : 0521577993
Genre : History
File Size : 86. 22 MB
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This new edition is completely up-to-date and still the only comprehensive reference for students of the nations of the former Soviet Union.

Fixing Fragile States

Author : Seth D. Kaplan
ISBN : 0275998282
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 25. 77 MB
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Offers analysis into political, economic and business mistakes and solutions within fragile states. This title argues that to avoid revisiting the carnage and catastrophes seen in places like Iraq, Bosnia, and the Congo, the West needs to rethink its ideas on fragile states and start helping their peoples build governments that fit the landscape

What S Next

Author : Ian Bremmer
ISBN : 9781101621967
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 55. 78 MB
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From the world’s leading experts on geopolitical risk, a guide to the major global issues and policies sure to dominate headlines in the next few years. In the last four years, the world has suffered a financial market meltdown and subsequent global recession. The eurozone crisis looms, the Middle East is in turmoil, and a shifting power balance between emerging markets and developed economies is reordering the global economy as a whole. Political and economic challenges intertwine now more than ever before, as the demands of local politics and global business grow increasingly complex and begin to conflict in new ways. Facing these new challenges, what will the future hold? Ian Bremmer and Douglas Rediker, together with experts, analysts, and many of their colleagues from the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Geopolitical Risk, analyze these global issues and provide a template to understand how they will change our world in the next few years. Focusing on the most volatile, powerful, or misunderstood developments, the authors examine, among other topics: The risks to the International Monetary Fund Russia’s future The roles of emerging markets The political roots of the eurozone crisis Important trends and tensions in Asia-Pacific The rise of regionalism in the wake of fracturing international governance Most importantly, the contributors provide guidance on how to understand some of the key dynamics in the rapidly evolving global game.

The J Curve

Author : Ian Bremmer
ISBN : 0743293711
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 50. 15 MB
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Locate nations on the J Curve -- left for authoritarian, right for democratic. Then figure out how to force those on the left to open their societies, rather than encouraging them to shut them tighter by further isolating them. The West's isolation of Kim Jong-il's North Korea gives him the cover he needs to extend his brutal regime (the mistake the U.S. made for a long time with Saddam Hussein and Castro); in Saudi Arabia, western governments should encourage manageable change before the country breaks apart; they should help strengthen China's economy so it can further liberalize; they must encourage Israel to decide what kind of country it will be. Filled with imaginative and surprising examples of how to correct outworn political ideas, The J Curve points the way for western governments to lead the way to a realistic political balance and a healthier economic future.

Superpower

Author : Ian Bremmer
ISBN : 9780698176393
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 76. 52 MB
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America will remain the world’s only superpower for the foreseeable future. But what sort of superpower? What role should America play in the world? What role do you want America to play? Ian Bremmer argues that Washington’s directionless foreign policy has become prohibitively expensive and increasingly dangerous. Since the end of the Cold War, U.S. policymakers have stumbled from crisis to crisis in Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Syria, and Ukraine without a clear strategy. Ordinary Americans too often base their foreign policy choices on allegiance or opposition to the party in power. We can no longer afford this complacency, especially now that both parties are deeply divided about America’s role in the world. The next presidential election could easily pit an interventionist Democrat against an isolationist Republican—or the exact opposite. As 2016 rapidly approaches, Bremmer urges every American to think more deeply about what sort of country America should be and how it should use its superpower status. He explores three options: Independent America asserts that it’s time for America to declare independence from the responsibility to solve other people’s problems. Instead, Americans should lead by example—in part, by investing in the country’s vast untapped potential. Moneyball America acknowledges that Washington can’t meet every international challenge. With a clear-eyed assessment of U.S. strengths and limitations, we must look beyond empty arguments over exceptionalism and American values. The priorities must be to focus on opportunities and to defend U.S. interests where they’re threatened. Indispensable America argues that only America can defend the values on which global stability increasingly depends. In today’s interdependent, hyperconnected world, a turn inward would undermine America’s own security and prosperity. We will never live in a stable world while others are denied their most basic freedoms—from China to Russia to the Middle East and beyond. There are sound arguments for and against each of these choices, but we must choose. Washington can no longer improvise a foreign policy without a lasting commitment to a coherent strategy. As Bremmer notes, “When I began writing this book, I didn’t know which of these three choices I would favor. It’s easy to be swayed by pundits and politicians with a story to sell or an ax to grind. My attempt to make the most honest and forceful case I could make for each of these three arguments helped me understand what I believe and why I believe it. I hope it will do the same for you. I don’t ask you to agree with me. I ask only that you choose.”

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